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2023 Forecast: As the COVID Vaccine Market Evolves, What’s Next for the Top Players?
After nearly three years in a heated race to distribute vaccines and drugs against the most severe pandemic in a century, biopharma’s COVID-19 market fades more and more each quarter. Next year, we’ll see more changes that’ll force the top players to pivot.
In 2020 and 2021, Moderna and Pfizer — with BioNTech at its side — shot out of the gate with their respective mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, quickly earning spots as top moneymakers on the pandemic scene. It’s a story that doesn’t need recapping, but the height of the action seems to be winding down.
2023 should present a challenge for companies hoping to repeat their pandemic sales hauls — and so far companies are staying mum on their expectations. Lee Brown, global sector lead for healthcare at Third Bridge Group, said this fall that the three pandemic superstar companies will “struggle with the transition to the post pandemic environment” as COVID revenues decline alongside earnings.
Meanwhile, as the COVID-19 vaccine race continues to evolve, another vaccine market could begin to unfold in 2023. The respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) race features key players such as Pfizer, GSK, Sanofi and AstraZeneca. The market is said to be worth $10.5 billion over the next decade, SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges wrote to clients in 2021. At the time, Porges expected GSK to pick up $2.9 billion of that total revenue by 2030, with Pfizer taking $2.1 billion, J&J collecting $1.7 billion and Sanofi snagging $1.2 billion.
State Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo Will Work With UF in COVID Vaccine Research
After a discussion with health experts, the Florida surgeon general announced that the University of Florida will be assisting him in researching the effects of the COVID-19 vaccination. State Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo said he would conduct research through UF to look into the deaths of “healthy” people who died after receiving the COVID-19 vaccine.
In the press release, Ladapo said the Biden Administration and pharmaceutical corporations continue to distribute the mRNA vaccines. “Including children as young as six months old, through relentless propaganda while ignoring real-life adverse events,” Ladapo said.
During the roundtable discussion held on Dec. 13, Ladapo talked about a clinical research study conducted at a university in Germany. Autopsies were conducted on healthy people who died suddenly without any known acute illness after receiving the COVID-19 vaccination. “They looked at four out of 35 people, who actually had myocarditis and it was a type of myocarditis that was different from the typical types of myocarditis,” Ladapo said.
“Specifically it was a type of myocarditis that they attributed to the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. It is important to know that these people died at home suddenly,” Ladapo said.
Biden Admin Increasing Spending on Vaccine Injury Claims Raises Questions
The U.S. Senate may be poised to pass a $1.7 trillion omnibus spending bill with bipartisan support this week and avoid a government shutdown but one section of the legislation may draw the attention of those skeptical about COVID-19 vaccines. The spending bill provides for more than $15 million for administrative expenses for the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program Trust Fund, which provides funding for the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.
That program is designed to “compensate vaccine-related injury or death petitions for covered vaccines administered on or after October 1, 1988,” according to the Health Resources & Services Administration (HRSA).
“Last year’s administrative expenses for the vax injury trust fund were $13.2 million — now it’s $15.2 million,” Republican Representative Dan Bishop said. “That’s a 15% increase. Anticipating a 15% increase in vaccine injuries?”
The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) does not cover COVID-19 vaccinations and HRSA’s website explains that COVID vaccines are covered under the Countermeasures Injury Compensation Program (CICP).
Drug Price Group Slashes Suggested Price of Pfizer COVID Treatment by 80%
An influential drug pricing research group has cut its suggested price range for Pfizer Inc.’s (PFE.N) COVID-19 antiviral treatment Paxlovid by more than 80%, partly to reflect the decreased disease burden as the Omicron variant of the coronavirus tends to cause less severe illness.
The Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) said on Tuesday that its new suggested U.S. price based on the benefits and value to patients was in the range of $563 to $906 per treatment course. That compares with its previous assessment of $3,600 to $5,800 per course.
ICER is not a government agency and has no authority to set prices. But many large health insurers take their reports into account when they negotiate prices with drug manufacturers and determine patient access. Drugmakers also take into account ICER estimates when they set prices for new medicines.
BF.7: What to Know About the Omicron COVID Variant
Since the COVID variant Omicron emerged in late 2021, it has rapidly evolved into multiple subvariants. One subvariant, BF.7, has recently been identified as the main variant spreading in Beijing, and is contributing to a wider surge of COVID infections in China.
But what is this new variant, and should we be worried? Although reports from China about this variant’s characteristics are concerning, it doesn’t appear to be growing too much elsewhere in the world. Here’s what we know. BF.7, short for BA.5.2.1.7, is a sub-lineage of the Omicron variant BA.5.
Reports from China indicate BF.7 has the strongest infection ability out of the Omicron subvariants in the country, being quicker to transmit than other variants, having a shorter incubation period, and with greater capacity to infect people who have had a previous COVID infection, or been vaccinated, or both.
To put this into context, BF.7 is believed to have an R0, or basic reproduction number, of 10 to 18.6. This means an infected person will transmit the virus to an average of 10 to 18.6 other people. Research has shown Omicron has an average R0 of 5.08.
Spending Bill Would Revamp Pandemic Response, Medicaid Funding
A sweeping year-end $1.7 trillion congressional spending package would revamp the country’s pandemic response and make major changes to Medicaid policy, among other health provisions.
The legislation includes most of a bipartisan bill from Sens. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Richard Burr (R-N.C.) aimed at improving the U.S. preparedness for pandemics after the many shortcomings in the response to COVID-19.
The bill includes changes aimed at improving public health communication and data collection, speeding up the development of vaccines and treatments, and bolstering oversight of health agencies.
But the spending bill notably excludes a measure that would have established a bipartisan task force modeled on the 9/11 Commission to examine the U.S. response to COVID-19 as well as the controversial subject of the origins of the pandemic. Partisan investigations are underway in both chambers, which has dismayed public health advocates who fear no answers will be gained without an independent probe.
Defenses Down: COVID Antibodies in Nose Decline First
U.S. News & World Report reported:
Researchers think they’ve figured out why people can become reinfected with COVID-19, despite immunity gained from either vaccination or a previous infection.
It turns out that antibodies produced in the nose — the first line of defense against respiratory viruses like COVID — decline faster than antibodies found in the bloodstream, British scientists say.
Nasal antibodies tend to drop nine months after COVID-19 infection, while antibodies in the blood last at least a year, according to findings published online Dec. 19 in the journal eBioMedicine.
“While blood antibodies help to protect against disease, nasal antibodies can prevent infection altogether. This might be an important factor behind repeat infections with the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its new variants,” lead researcher Dr. Felicity Liew, from the National Heart and Lung Institute at Imperial College London, added in a college news release.
Long COVID Patients Can Face a Battle Trying to Claim Benefits Through Their Workplace Disability Insurance
Mike Yada was suffering from “long COVID” — a post-infection condition involving a cluster of symptoms that can be disruptive at best and debilitating at worst. More than two years and many doctor’s appointments later, he is still fighting those symptoms.
Yada, who worked in the tech field, also has had to wage another battle: maintaining income replacement through disability insurance, an employee benefit through his now ex-employer. While he recently won an appeal to restore those benefits after the insurer suddenly ended them, he’s not sure it will stick.
An estimated 43% of private industry workers have access to short-term disability insurance through their employer, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It typically replaces 60% to 100% of an employee’s income, usually for three or six months, said Alex Henry, a national practice leader at Willis Towers Watson, an insurance advisory firm.
Long-term disability insurance, which is intended to kick in when necessary after short-term disability benefits run out, is available to 35% of workers. It usually pays 50% to 70% of a worker’s income — often through retirement age, depending on the specifics.
China’s COVID ‘Chaos’: How a Shortage of Fever Drugs Is Sparking a Global Run on Medicines
An unprecedented wave of COVID infections in China has triggered widespread drug shortages, as people scramble to buy fever medicines and painkillers to alleviate flu-like symptoms.
The panic buying has spread outside mainland China’s borders, with the generic versions of Tylenol and Advil sold out at drugstores in Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and as far afield as Australia, prompting some local pharmacies to limit sales. Even home remedies such as canned peaches are being snapped up by people looking for ways to fight COVID.
The situation mirrors shortages seen in the United States and Canada over children’s painkillers, which are in high demand because of the proliferation of respiratory viruses.
At five drugstores in the commercial district of Wan Chai, the drug Panadol, the local brand name for Tylenol, has been sold out for two weeks, salespersons told CNN. One salesman, who gave his name as Simon, said the shortage was due to buyers purchasing in bulk to send to their friends and relatives in the mainland.
BioNTech-Pfizer COVID Vaccine Sent to China for Germans
Germany has dispatched a batch of the BioNTech-Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine to China, where it will be administered to Germans who live in the country.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, said the vaccines were sent on a flight that was due to land in China on Wednesday. He said that the Chinese government formally informed Berlin in a diplomatic note that German citizens can be inoculated with the vaccine, which otherwise isn’t cleared for use in China.
In exchange for China’s agreement to allow the limited use of the German-developed BioNTech-Pfizer vaccine, Germany is allowing Chinese citizens in Germany to get the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine, which hasn’t been approved in the European Union.
Scholz said when he visited Beijing in early November that China would make BioNTech-Pfizer shots available for expatriates and said that can “only be a first step,” indicating that he hoped the vaccine’s use could be expanded to the Chinese public.
Scarlet Fever Outbreak in U.K. Far Bigger Than Previously Thought
A U.K. outbreak of scarlet fever that has prompted shortages of some antibiotics is far more widespread than previously thought, with about 27,000 cases now reported since mid-September.
More than 9,000 cases of the illnesss, caused by group A streptococcus bacteria, were reported in the latest week in England and Wales, according to the U.K. Health Security Agency. The agency also updated a previous tally to add almost 10,000 cases occurring in November and earlier in December.
