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The percentage of U.S. children diagnosed with a developmental disability rose sharply between 2019 and 2024, with reported cases of autism increasing by more than 40% and ADHD also climbing substantially, according to a new study published in Pediatrics.
In 2023-2024, an estimated 20.45% of children ages 3 to 17 — roughly 1 in 5 — were diagnosed with at least one of five developmental disabilities, up from 16.73% in 2019-2020, a 22.2% increase in just five years.
Autism showed the largest increase, rising 42.4%, with the steepest increases reported among 3- to 5-year-olds and children from families living below 200% of the federal poverty level.
Researchers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics analyzed data from the 2019-2024 National Health Interview Survey, a nationally representative household survey that includes detailed health interviews with families in their home or by phone.
Toby Rogers, Ph.D., social & economic research fellow at the Brownstone Institute, told The Defender that the “truly alarming” findings were solid, based on a large sample size and a detailed dataset.
He called the lead author, Benjamin Zablotsky, Ph.D., “a titan in the field of autism prevalence research.”
However, Rogers told The Defender that he was “struck by the cowardice of the study’s discussion section and conclusions.”
In their discussion of the data, the authors said the study didn’t investigate what drove the substantial increases, but that changes in diagnostic criteria and clinical practices, and increased awareness among parents and across society may explain the increased prevalence.
“The conclusion that these increases ‘could be related to earlier detection and awareness’ is speculation that is not grounded in any strong evidence presented in the paper, autism researcher Cynthia Nevison, Ph.D., told The Defender.
Nevison, who recently published a study in California that found comparable rising rates, said the CDC researchers could have acknowledged that the numbers may also reflect true increases in autism — and that “distinguishing those alternative explanations is an urgent public health research priority.”
The study examined data from 2019-2024. “A lot of toxicological factors changed during that time period,” Rogers said. He cited more onerous vaccine mandates in California, New York and other blue states; more shots added to the childhood vaccine schedule and recommended for pregnant women; and the COVID-19 shots, which were given to the most Americans for the first time.
He added:
“Any honest inquiry into the causes of this sharp rise in the prevalence of developmental disabilities would start there. However, the authors don’t mention any of those obvious factors because they are too politically sensitive.
“Instead, they fill the discussion section with thought-terminating clichés about ‘changes in diagnostic criteria’ and ‘increased parental and societal awareness’ that have already been disproven many times.”
Autism diagnoses more than doubled in children ages 3 to 5
The study, which included data on 39,217 children ages 3 to 17, examined autism spectrum disorder, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), learning disability, intellectual disability and other developmental delays.
Key findings include:
- Diagnoses of at least one of the five conditions increased 32.3% in children ages 3 to 5 and 25.4% among girls. Among non-Hispanic Asian children, the diagnoses rose from 6.10% to 10.56% — a 73.11% increase.
- The most commonly reported condition was ADHD, and rates increased 26% from 9.52% to 12%, with notable increases among girls and among low-income families.
- Autism rates rose from 3.14% of children in 2019-2020 to 4.47% in 2023-2024. In children ages 3 to 5, autism rates jumped from 2.39% to 5.27% — a 120.5% increase.
- Autism prevalence increased 58.3% among girls. The authors noted that this was the “first time” researchers found a significant increase in autism prevalence among girls — rates are typically higher in boys. They said future studies should look at the causes for that change.
- Autism rates increased 60.8% among families living below 200% of the federal poverty level, and 85.8% among children living in nonmetropolitan areas.
- Learning disabilities increased 16.2%, from 7.60% to 8.83%; and other developmental delays increased 16.1%, from 5.47% to 6.35%. Intellectual disability increased from 1.95% to 2.08%, but that change was not statistically significant.
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‘I would have liked to see the paper convey a greater sense of urgency’
The rising rates track with other research published by the CDC and other studies that have identified dramatically rising rates for autism and other developmental disabilities in recent years.
Yet, many mainstream science journals and media outlets consistently attribute the massive difference largely to changing diagnosis and awareness.
At best, they conclude that the rising numbers mean that more infrastructure must be developed to support children with autism and other developmental disabilities.
Nevison said researchers need to be asking questions instead about why the changes are happening. “I would have liked to see the paper convey a greater sense of urgency to understand why these large changes in developmental disability rates have occurred over a very short period of time,” she said.
Rogers said that for researchers working in government organizations and universities, asking that question is basically impossible.
“Look, I get it — the authors took a dive in the discussion and conclusions because they would lose their jobs if they asked hard questions about causation. Everyone knows this,” he said.
He added:
“There’s a certain paint-by-numbers quality to articles in connection with the autism epidemic that are published by Pediatrics or written by government researchers, where they omit any urgency, curiosity or empathy in order to signal their obedience to the all-powerful pharmaceutical industry.
“But at some point this obsequiousness becomes ridiculous. American science and medicine have started to resemble the darkest days of Soviet Lysenkoism where scholars repeat things that they know are untrue in order to fit the required narrative.
“The result of this extreme epistemic capture … is the erosion of trust, the necrotizing of science and ultimately the collapse of society.”
Related articles in The Defender
- Autism Rates Increased Sharply for California Kids Born in 2016
- 1 in 31 Kids Had Autism in 2022 — Up From 1 in 36 in 2020
- ‘Genes Do Not Cause Epidemics’: Kennedy Lambastes Media for Denying Autism Epidemic, Vows to Research Environmental Triggers
- Autism Prevalence: A Real, Accelerating Epidemic
- ‘Autism Tsunami’: Society’s Cost to Care for Expanding, Aging Autism Population Will Hit $5.54 Trillion by 2060
- In New Autism Report, CDC Again Fails to Address Root Causes
- What’s Behind Skyrocketing Autism Rates — Better Diagnostics? Or an Avalanche of Toxins?
