COVID … Have You Heard? There Is Good News!
By H. Ealy, M. McEvoy, M. Sava, S. Gupta, D. Chong, E. Braham, C. Fieberg, D. White, P. Anderson
Key Findings For Data Through July 5th
- Increases in new cases in Texas, Arizona, Florida & California demonstrate a clear correlation with significant increases in PCR testing, but the percentage of these new cases that require hospitalization, or result in a fatality, are far lower than what occurred in NY & NJ.
- Texas, Arizona, Florida & California do not statistically qualify as ‘new epicenters’ and additional executive orders, including a 2nd ‘Stay At Home’ order and major alterations to traditional in-person education, is not statistically justified particularly in light of Probability of Recovery.
- Fatalities Per Week have decreased nationally, each week, for the 10th consecutive week according to data published by each of the 56 US State & Territory Health Departments.
- At least, 1,045,888 Americans have been confirmed as recovered according to data published by each of the 56 US State & Territory Health Departments.
As of July 5th 2020, more than 1 Million Americans have been confirmed as recovered according to data compiled from each of the 56 US State & Territory Health Departments (USSTHD). This is undoubtedly good news and provides a source of hope for our beleaguered society.
While every recovery is to be celebrated, we also respect the physical demands recovery has placed upon many Americans and honor that the process of recovery is not without its own unique challenges or potential for long-term adverse health impacts. What we share in our collective work is a data-focused perspective and is never meant to marginalize the experiences of anyone adversely impacted by an infection.
The purpose of this statistical research paper is to provide the reader with a fresh and unique perspective regarding the SARS-CoV-2 virus, commonly referred to as the COVID-19 infection. One of the great concerns we have as authors and professionals is the skewed methodology of data reporting, leading to ambiguity in what the correct course of action regarding public health policy should be moving forward.
Far too frequently, the American people are underinformed by members of the mainstream media (MSM) and the Center For Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) as to (1) the total number of cases, (2) the number of daily new cases, (3) the total number of fatalities, and (4) the number of daily new fatalities.1 Each of these categories are important statistics to be aware of, particularly in April when we knew much less than we know now.
However, when cases and fatalities are the only data consistently shared, many Americans are left to conclude that the current situation only continues to worsen as cases and fatalities inevitably increase. These attempts at mental conditioning can and do create objective justifications in listening audiences. Objective justifications for fear of the unknown can, in turn, support the extension of restrictions upon our Constitutionally protected freedoms, and in doing so, be responsible for creating unintentional collateral damage throughout our society.
The urgent need for more thorough and balanced statistical reporting is of the utmost importance in order to foster more productive, less argumentative, conversations.
Curiously, what we are not frequently seeing side by side the aforementioned data categories are (1) the total number of people tested, (2) the number of new negative tests per day, (3) the total number of recoveries, and (4) the number of new recoveries vs new fatalities per day. These equally important statistical categories add balance and value to all discussions on this topic if we are to be pragmatic in our thinking, decision making, and future policy formation.
Our data projections suggest, with weekly new fatalities declining for the 10th consecutive week according to the CDC, and in relationship to significant increases in new recoveries each day, the United States is now projected to have over 2.7 Million recoveries. Additionally, of those 2.7 Million anticipated recoveries, over 2.45 Million will not require hospitalization. This projected statistical data is extremely important for providing Americans a more balanced perspective that incorporates positive information with concerning information. It is unclear why few MSM outlets and the CDC are not readily reporting this data.
The CDC has not begun reporting Recovery Data supplied by 46 of 51 USSTHDs.
In our first research paper, ‘Are Children Really Recovering 99.9584% of the Time From COVID-19,’ we discussed some of the issues with the data in our Data Limitations section.
In this follow up research paper, we will discuss the positive signs of recovery for the US as well as some of the most recent problems with the data being published at the USSTHD level.
Following a June 13th CDC guideline update for PCR testing in hospitals, we have seen an uncharacteristic increase in new cases. This increase in new cases has not yet lead to an increase in hospitalizations similar to what was reported by the New York & New Jersey health departments in April.2
Moreover, the new guidelines only serve to further complicate the situation and impede accurate data analysis in our professional opinions.
Do Texas, Arizona, Florida & California Compare To New York & New Jersey As Potential Epicenters?
Prior to April 2020, Americans were warned several times by Dr. Anthony Fauci, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) group from Washington University, and the CDC of a coming storm of fatalities due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that could be as high as 2.2 Million or range between 100,000 to 1.7 Million.3,4,5,6,7,8,9
This set the expectations that the basis for determining the severity of this unknown infection and its impact upon the United States would be in the published fatality data.
However, more recently the MSM, CDC, Dr. Fauci, and even several Governors have placed a greater importance on the new cases per day statistic despite new fatalities declining for the 10th consecutive week.
There is some objective rationale for public health concerns escalating due to increases in new cases, IF there is an equal percentage rise in new hospitalizations and/or fatalities similar to what was reported in New York & New Jersey in April during the height of the initial wave of infections.
However, we have not seen rises in hospitalizations or fatalities similar to what was reported in New York & New Jersey at the beginning of the crisis, in any of the 4 states being closely watched due to rises in new cases over a comparative 3-week period. In New York & New Jersey, the 3-week period that initiated there designation as the epicenter for COVID-19 was Mar 21st to Apr 10th. The comparable 3-week period for Texas, Arizona, Florida & California is Jun 15th to Jul 5th. The increase in new cases is likely due to a higher volume of testing, improved overall reporting, and a slightly truer ratios of case reports to hospitalizations than were available in the earlier part of the pandemic for New York and New Jersey.
This graphic demonstrates a significant increase in testing from Jun 15th to Jul 5th for TX, FL, and CA as compared to a similar 3-week time period from Mar 21st to Apr 10th in NY/NJ. It also reveals, the relative percent disparity in new cases in the latter time period despite the significant increase in testing as this crisis has progressed. The percentage of positive tests in NY/NJ (44.3%) is considerably higher than the percentage of positive tests in TX (12.0%), AZ (20.1%), Florida (11.8%), and California (5.9%).
In summary, as new cases rise in TX, AZ, FL, and CA, similar to what happened previously in NY/NJ, the percentage of people testing positive is significantly less than what occurred in NY/NJ during the epicenter-level rise in that region. This is primary statistical evidence that what is occurring in TX, AZ, FL, and CA is not an epicenter-level rise. (See Table 1 For A Summary of Data)
This graphic demonstrates a sizeable discrepancy in percentage of new cases requiring hospitalization between NY/NJ (20.7%) and Texas (5.5%), Arizona (2.8%), Florida (3.2%), and California (2.3%).
It also demonstrates the sizeable discrepancy in percentage of new cases resulting in fatal outcomes between NY/NJ (4.6%) and Texas (0.6%), Arizona (1.0%), Florida (0.7%), and California (1.1%).
While many of the fatalities in NY/NJ. during this and later periods, have been reportedly due to the COVID-19 ravaging senior assisted living centers and nursing homes, this data may suggest that procedures for protecting our most vulnerable in these environments has improved immensely.
If the statistical volume and correlation data for cases, hospitalizations, and fatalities in NY/NJ establish the criteria for defining an epicenter, then by this definition Texas, Arizona, Florida, and California do not currently qualify as epicenters. This is further statistical evidence that what is occurring in TX, AZ, FL, and CA is not an epicenter-level rise. (See Table 1 For A Summary of Data)
Therefore, a rise in new cases alone, without comparable rises in new hospitalizations and/or fatalities, does not justify cases becoming the new benchmark for justifying epicenter-level executive orders or increased social anxiety.
Recovery vs Fatality Data
This data reveals that Americans are now almost 9 times more likely to recover than pass away due to COVID-19 and the gap between recoveries and fatalities continues to grow each day. (See Table 2 For A Summary of Data By State)
As you can see, recoveries are significantly outpacing fatalities every day and the distance between the two continues to grow so much that it makes graphical visualization for comparison very challenging. The spikes in recoveries you see, typically occur when a new health department begins reporting recoveries for the first time as happened on June 21st.
As of July 5th, while fatality data is being reported by every USSTHD, recovery data is being reported by only 46 of the 51 USSTHDs. California, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, & Washington State are the only USSTHDs currently not reporting recovery data.
Published recovery data is most commonly comprised of patients who have been discharged from the hospital following a lab confirmed hospitalization whereby the patient has had 2 consecutive negative PCR molecular tests at least 24 hours apart.2
However, many states have begun confirming Americans, who have tested positive, as recovered cases, if the person testing positive was asked to quarantine and in a specific time frame did not require hospitalization or additional medical attention. This time range is 14 days from the date of the positive test for most states and up to 30 days in a small number of states. This is a critical data point as “recovered cases” are not simply those who are released from hospitals but also the much larger group who never needed hospital care.
Table 2 – Summary Of Confirmed Cases, Recoveries & Fatalities By State
This statistical research paper provides objective, data-driven results that demonstrate the United States is well into recovery despite the increase in new cases, which are more likely due to significant increases in testing (and potentially CDC hospital testing guidelines updated June 13th).
This data suggests that any further executive orders based exclusively on increases in new cases, including a 2nd quarantine period and either delaying the new school year or enforcing virtual classrooms, are likely to be statistically unjustified with respect to NY/NY defining the statistical criteria for what constitutes an epicenter.
A time is at hand when the national conversation must shift away from fears over new cases and refocus on addressing the very real economic, mental health, physical health, emotional health and social collateral damage created by the prolonged intrusion of executive orders upon our Constitutional freedoms.
It is important to remember that Americans were implored, and ordered in most states, to stay home in order to flatten the curve of infective spread and minimize the impact of this infection upon our healthcare systems.
Americans complied willingly with the implicit understanding that this course of action would be relatively brief and not extended without significant and verifiable data justification.
At no point did Americans agree in unison that we would not be able to register official public comment in order to voice our unique concerns and perspectives during the first time period of executive orders. Nor did we agree that allowing small business owners to reopen their businesses would be postponed by additional executive orders without emergency legislative sessions.
And we certainly didn’t agree to reopening houses of worship, schools and entertainment venues in multiple phases, with these key components for social health being placed last.
We didn’t agree that the criteria for approving a return to ‘life as we knew it’ would be based on anything other than healthcare impact or fatalities…yet now there is a seeming call to move away from hospitalizations and fatalities in favor of new cases for determining policy.
Americans did our part, and now it’s time for the MSM, CDC, and Governors of each state to do their part and facilitate a path forward that honors the spirit of the Constitution, reengages the economy, and reestablishes the social networks, so essential for a healthy and thriving republic.
We urge the MSM and CDC to begin reporting total tests per day alongside new cases, new recoveries per day alongside new fatalities, and in doing so, provide a more balanced perspective to a society that depends upon them for trusted information.
We urge all Governors to prioritize places of worship and in-person education for all citizens and to begin adding qualified Naturopathic Doctors and Holistic Nutritionists to their appointed health department teams and advisors, so Americans can receive peer-reviewed nutritional recommendations alongside recommendations for hygiene, masks and social distancing.
If we can figure out a way to test over 34 Million Americans in a 3 month window, then we can figure out a way to implement logical improvements in how this crisis is being reported and how we respond medically to this unexpected adversity.
Updated Probability of Recovery, Age Demographic & Testing Data
Probability of Recovery continues to improve for all age demographics from our initial June 21st research article.
As we covered in the Data Limitations section of our previous article, ‘Are Children Really Recovering 99.9584% of the Time From COVID-19,’ from the very beginning the CDC supported the counting of every case and fatality as COVID-19 caused, even without a confirmatory lab test. A case or fatality can be legitimately counted as a COVID-19 case or fatality from any of the following:10
“A. Narrative: Description of criteria to determine how a case should be classified. A1. Clinical Criteria At least two of the following symptoms: fever (measured or subjective), chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, sore throat, new olfactory and taste disorder(s) OR At least one of the following symptoms: cough, shortness of breath, or difficulty breathing OR Severe respiratory illness with at least one of the following: Clinical or radiographic evidence of pneumonia, or Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) AND No alternative more likely diagnosis.”
The CDC classifies these types of cases and fatalities as ‘Probable’.
As of July 5th, there are currently 47,174 Probable Cases & 9,431 Probable Fatalities. The concern is that Probable Cases & Fatalities continue to grow daily despite massive testing that has seen at least 36,853,943 lab tests performed and every USSTHD having the ability to list a case as ‘Pending’, if a lab test has been performed but has yet to result.
On July 5th there were 47,174 Probable Cases, but only 2,205 Pending lab tests.
Additionally, we are concerned that the rise in new cases coincides with the CDC’s June 13th updated testing guidelines.
Funding & Conflict of Interest Statement
This statistical research paper has been developed, composed and published without any funding and thanks in part to a strictly, 100% volunteer community effort made by a diverse array of qualified professionals who care deeply about children and the health of every American. The authors of this paper confirm no conflicts of interest, financial, political or otherwise.
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- Council of State & Territorial Epidemiologists; Standardized surveillance case definition and national notification for 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19); Interim-20-ID-01; https://cdn.ymaws.com/www.cste.org/resource/resmgr/2020ps/Interim-20-ID-01_COVID-19.pdf
- Steckler, A., & McLeroy, K. R. (2008). The importance of external validity. American journal of public health, 98(1), 9–10. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2007.126847
- Matthay, E. C., & Glymour, M. M. (2020). A Graphical Catalog of Threats to Validity: Linking Social Science with Epidemiology. Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.), 31(3), 376–384. https://doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001161
State & Territory Health Departments
- Alaska Department of Health & Social Services Coronavirus Response: https://coronavirus-response-alaska-dhss.hub.arcgis.com/
- Alabama’s COVID-19 Data and Surveillance Dashboard: https://alpublichealth.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/6d2771faa9da4a2786a509d82c8cf0f7
- Arkansas Department of Health: https://azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php
- California COVID-19 Dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/views/COVID-19PublicDashboard/Covid-19Hospitals?:embed=y&:display_count=no&:showVizHome=no
- Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment, Case Data: https://covid19.colorado.gov/data/case-data
- Connecticut COVID-19 Response: https://portal.ct.gov/Coronavirus
- Government of the District of Columbia, Coronavirus Data: https://coronavirus.dc.gov/page/coronavirus-data
- State of Delaware COVID-19 Data Dashboard: https://myhealthycommunity.dhss.delaware.gov/locations/state
- Florida COVID-19 Response: https://floridahealthcovid19.gov/
- Georgia Department of Public Health: https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
- State of Hawaii Department of Health, Disease Outbreak Division: https://health.hawaii.gov/coronavirusdisease2019/
- Iowa Department of Public Health https://idph.iowa.gov/Emerging-Health-Issues/Novel-Coronavirus
- Idaho Department of Public Health Dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/profile/idaho.division.of.public.health#!/vizhome/DPHIdahoCOVID-19Dashboard_V2/Story1
- Illinois Department of Public Health COVID-19 Statistics: https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/data.html
- Indiana COVID-19 Dashboard: https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/
- Kansas Department of Health & Environment, COVID-19 Cases in Kansas: https://www.coronavirus.kdheks.gov/160/COVID-19-in-Kansas
- Kentucky Cabinet for Health & Family Services: https://govstatus.egov.com/kycovid19
- Louisiana Department of Health: http://ldh.la.gov/Coronavirus/
- Massachusetts Department of Public Health COVID-19 Dashboard -Dashboard of Public Health Indicators: https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting
- Maryland Department of Health: https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/
- Maine Center for Disease Control & Prevention: https://www.maine.gov/dhhs/mecdc/infectious-disease/epi/airborne/coronavirus/index.shtml
- Michigan Coronavirus Data: https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_98173—,00.html
- Minnesota Department of Health: https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html
- Missouri COVID-19 Dashboard: http://mophep.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=8e01a5d8d8bd4b4f85add006f9e14a9d
- Mississippi State Department of Health: https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html#caseTable
- MONTANA RESPONSE: COVID-19 – Coronavirus – Global, National, and State Information Resources: https://montana.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=7c34f3412536439491adcc2103421d4b
- North Carolina NCDHHS COVID-19 Response: https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases
- Coronavirus COVID-19 Nebraska Cases by the Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS): https://nebraska.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/4213f719a45647bc873ffb58783ffef3
- New Hampshire Department of Health & Human Services: https://www.nh.gov/covid19/
- New Jersey COVID-19 information Hub: https://covid19.nj.gov/#live-updates
- State of Nevada Department of Health & Human Services, Office of Analytics: https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiMjA2ZThiOWUtM2FlNS00MGY5LWFmYjUtNmQwNTQ3Nzg5N2I2IiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9
- New York Department of Health, NYSDOH COVID-19 Tracker: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Map?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n
- New York City Coronavirus Data: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data
- Ohio Department of Health: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/home
- Oklahoma State Department of Health: https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/
- Oregon Health Authority: https://govstatus.egov.com/OR-OHA-COVID-19
- COVID-19 Data for Pennsylvania: https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx
- Puerto Rico Health Statistics: https://estadisticas.pr/en/covid-19
- Rhode Island COVID-19 Response Data: https://ri-department-of-health-covid-19-data-rihealth.hub.arcgis.com/
- South Carolina Testing Data & Projections (COVID-19): https://scdhec.gov/infectious-diseases/viruses/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/sc-testing-data-projections-covid-19
- South Dakota Department of Health: https://doh.sd.gov/news/Coronavirus.aspx
- Tennessee Department of Health: https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html
- Texas Health & Human Services: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
- Utah Department of Health: COVID-19 Surveillance: https://coronavirus-dashboard.utah.gov/
- Virginia Department of Health: https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/vdh.population.health/viz/VirginiaCOVID-19Dashboard-Cases/VirginiaCOVID-19Dashboard
- S Virgin Islands Department of Health: https://doh.vi.gov/
- Vermont Current Activity Dashboard: https://www.healthvermont.gov/response/coronavirus-covid-19/current-activity-vermont
- Washington State Department of Health: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
- Wisconsin Department of Health Services: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm
- West Virginia Health & Human Resources: https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx
- Wyoming Department of Health: https://health.wyo.gov/publichealth/infectious-disease-epidemiology-unit/disease/novel-coronavirus/