Incidences of Chicken Pox are decreasing Shingles are increasing and the costs associated with the increase in Shingles incidences have exceed the cost savings from the decrease in Chicken Pox cases.
Review of the United States universal varicella vaccination program: Herpes zoster incidence rates, cost-effectiveness, and vaccine efficacy based primarily on the Antelope Valley Varicella Active Surveillance Project data
G.S. Goldman and P.G. King Vaccine, 31 (2013) 1680–1694.
In 2000, varicella incidence dramatically declined to 70% of the prevaccine rate but reports of Herpes zoster, Shingles, significantly increased among adults aged 20–69 years from 2000 to 2001. Even children with a prior history of varicella demonstrated Shingles rates similar to adults. By 2002, the efficacy of the varicella vaccination had declined well below 80% and the costs of the increased shingles rate have exceeded the cost savings from varicella-disease reductions.