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COVID-19 remains a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), the World Health Organization (WHO) said today — but it may not remain so for much longer.

This was the central outcome of the 14th meeting of the WHO’s International Health Regulations (2005) (IHR) Emergency Committee on Jan. 27. The meeting focused on the PHEIC declaration for COVID-19, first enacted on Jan. 30, 2020, and most recently renewed in July 2022.

The WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

The WHO said it “determines that the event continues to constitute a public health emergency of international concern,” but “acknowledges the Committee’s views that the COVID-19 pandemic is probably at a transition point.”

The WHO’s advisory committee called on the organization to propose “alternative mechanisms to maintain the global and national focus on COVID-19 after the PHEIC is terminated,” CNN reported.

The IHR Emergency Committee advised the WHO that COVID-19 deaths remain high globally compared to other infectious respiratory diseases, while vaccine uptake is still “insufficient” in low- and middle-income countries and emerging COVID-19 variants continue to pose a concern.

As was widely expected, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus accepted the committee’s recommendations. In statements during the days leading up to the meeting, Tedros indicated the PHEIC declaration would remain in effect — for now.

At a Jan. 25 WHO press briefing, Tedros said:

“While I will not preempt the advice of the emergency committee, I remain very concerned by the situation in many countries and the rising number of deaths. While we’re clearly in better shape than three years ago when this pandemic first hit, the global collective response is once again under strain.”

And in other remarks made last week, CNN reported, Tedros said:

“My message is clear: Do not underestimate this virus. It has and will continue to surprise us, and it will continue to kill unless we do more to get health tools to people that need them and to comprehensively tackle misinformation.”

Tom Bollyky, director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations, last week told STAT, “I think they will be particularly slow here, given a still quite high death toll, given what’s happening in China.” But the WHO may end the PHEIC declaration later this year, Bollyky said.

And Dr. Isaac Bogoch, a Canadian infectious disease specialist, told Canada’s CTV on Friday that the WHO is “not discussing if COVID-19 is still a problem or not. They are discussing whether or not this is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, and that of course means that it’s a major event that impacts multiple countries, where you need global coordination to get it under control.”

Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, said this about the WHO’s decision to extend the emergency:

“Today’s announcement is a recognition that the global threat posed by COVID-19 is not over. While the world has made remarkable progress over the last two years, implementing the largest and fastest global vaccine rollout in history, we cannot afford to be complacent.”

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is a Gavi partner and holds a seat on its board.

In an op-ed published today in TIME, Dr. Steven Phillips, MPH, vice president of Science and Strategy at the COVID Collaborative, cited historians as he argued the COVID-19 pandemic will be over when the public thinks it is.

As a possible sign of this, The New York Times Jan. 25 announced the end of its “Virus Briefing” newsletter, which it launched in spring 2020, soon after COVID-19 was declared a pandemic.

WHO: Prepare for ‘long-term public health action’ and tackling ‘misinformation’

The WHO’s International Health Regulations are a binding international treaty, under which a PHEIC can be declared if it meets three criteria: It is serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected; it has the potential to spread across borders; and it may require a coordinated international response.

If the WHO declares a PHEIC, an agreement between countries is formed to adhere to WHO recommendations for managing the emergency. However, under current regulations, each country declares its own public health emergency under a PHEIC.

At the Jan. 27 meeting, a global overview of the current status of COVID-19 was presented. According to the WHO, this overview encompassed:

“Global COVID-19 epidemiological situation; currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, including descendent lineages of these variants; unexpectedly early seasonal return of influenza and RSV in some regions, which is burdening some already overstressed health systems; status of global vaccination and hybrid immunity; and new travel-related health measures, including testing and vaccination requirements, implemented in response to the recent wave of COVID-19 cases after policy changes.”

Committee members expressed a number of different concerns about COVID-19 during the meeting.

For instance:

“The WHO Secretariat expressed concern about the continued virus evolution in the context of unchecked circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and the substantial decrease in Member States’ reporting of data related to COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, hospitalization and sequencing, and reiterated the importance of timely data sharing to guide the ongoing pandemic response.”

Also:

“They recognized that pandemic fatigue and reduced public perception of risk have led to drastically reduced use of public health and social measures, such as masks and social distancing. Vaccine hesitancy and the continuing spread of misinformation continue to be extra hurdles to the implementation of crucial public health interventions.”

However, the IHR Emergency Committee “acknowledged the COVID-19 pandemic may be approaching an inflexion point.”

As a result, the committee “discussed whether the continuation of a PHEIC is required to maintain global attention to COVID-19, the potential negative consequences that could arise if the PHEIC was terminated, and how to transition in a safe manner.”

The committee also acknowledged that the “virus will remain a permanently established pathogen in humans and animals for the foreseeable future” but that “there has been a decoupling between infection and severe disease when compared to earlier variants of concern.”

Accordingly, the committee noted “a need for improved surveillance and reporting on hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths to better understand the current impact on health systems and to appropriately characterize the clinical features of COVID-19 and post COVID-19 condition.”

Pandemic treaty, which would endow WHO with more power, still in the works

As recently reported by The Defender, the WHO is debating a proposed new “pandemic treaty” and amendments to the IHR.

Either or both of these developments would greatly expand the scope and reach of the IHR, greatly increase global public health surveillance mechanisms, institute a system of global health certificates and “passports” and allow the WHO to mandate medical examinations, quarantine and treatment.

The WHO, in its statement today, said it “continues to work closely with countries on all aspects of the COVID-19 response, including for strengthening the management of COVID-19 within longer-term disease control programs.”

“Specifically,” the WHO said, the meeting “highlighted its support to States Parties to: maintain multiple component surveillance systems; implement sentinel surveillance using a coordinated global approach to characterize known and emerging variants; strengthen COVID-19 clinical care pathways; provide regular updates to the COVID-19 guidelines [and] increase access to therapeutics, vaccines and diagnostics.”

The WHO added:

“Significant progress has also been made in: developing effective medical countermeasures; building global capacity for genomic sequencing and genomic epidemiology; and in understanding how to manage the infodemic in the new informational ecosystem including social media platforms.”

The WHO called on state actors to fine-tune their public health communication strategies as they pertain to COVID-19 vaccines and other countermeasures.

The WHO asked states to:

“Remain vigilant and continue reporting surveillance and genomic sequencing data; to recommend appropriately targeted risk-based public health and social measures (PHSM) where necessary; to vaccinate populations most at risk to minimize severe disease and deaths; and to conduct regular risk communication, answering population concerns and engaging communities to improve the understanding and implementation of countermeasures.”

As previously reported by The Defender, the WHO partners with several organizations, including “fact-checking” firm NewsGuard, for such purposes.

Some national policymakers waver on continuing pandemic declarations

Many national governments continue to implement their own pandemic-related emergency public health declarations.

The Biden administration on Jan. 11 extended its COVID-19 public health emergency, which means it will remain in place until at least April. This extension came despite President Biden, in September 2022, declaring the “pandemic is over.”

Prior to the WHO’s Friday meeting, Canada’s chief public health officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, said that regardless of the WHO’s decision, Canada’s public health response to COVID-19 will not change.

The Lancet, in an article published Jan. 14, said, “The COVID-19 pandemic in 2023” is “far from over” and that following China’s easing of its COVID-19-related domestic and travel restrictions, “there is a new, dangerous phase that requires urgent attention.”

However, Indonesia’s Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin, who at November’s G20 meeting called for an international “digital health certificate acknowledged by the WHO” to enable the public to “move around,” said prior to Friday’s WHO meeting that he will “lobby the WHO” about ending his country’s public health emergency.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan announced earlier this month that he had instructed his cabinet to reclassify COVID-19, placing it in the same category as seasonal flu, rubella and chickenpox in spring, the Gateway Pundit reported.

“In order to further advance the efforts of ‘living with Corona’ and restore Japan to a state of normalcy, we will transition the various policies and measures to date in phases,” Kishida said.

WHO updates list of medicines to stockpile for nuclear emergencies

Also on Friday, the WHO updated its list of medicines “that should be stockpiled for radiological and nuclear emergencies” and its “policy advice for their appropriate management.”

“These stockpiles include medicines that either prevent or reduce exposure to radiation, or treat injuries once exposure has occurred,” the WHO said.

The WHO also said:

“As the leading international organization in public health with both the authority and responsibility to assist in health emergencies, WHO provides advice and guidance to countries on public health preparedness and response to radiation emergencies, including stockpile development.

“In health emergencies WHO may assist in procuring or sharing medical supplies among countries.”

“This updated critical medicines list will be a vital preparedness and readiness tool for our partners to identify, procure, stockpile and deliver effective countermeasures in a timely fashion to those at risk or exposed in these events,” said Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme.